Friday, December 6, 2013
Stocks prediction voodoo!
Many think that prediction of stock price is the same as finding the force using the formula F=ma (that is, is deterministic as opposed to probabilistic). I just might have been, provided we were not dealing with people, a whole mass of them, jumping up and down the throat of the stock exchange. Any attempt to do so is nothing better than letting a monkey pick a winning stock, by letting him throw a dart at a chart, with stock symbols on it, a fact that many sane thinkers have been (though they have always been ignored and brushed aside by the charging hordes (both advancing and retreating) trying to put across. Stocks prediction is not a science though many would want you to believe that it is.
UNIC - United Insurance Co. of Pakistan Ltd. - Company Analysis - 06-12-2013
Company | UNIC | Symbol |
Company Name | United Insurance Co. of Pakistan Ltd. | Company Name |
Sector | Non Life Insurance | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs 2.80 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 7.60 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs 20.84 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year-end EPS's |
EPS | Rs 2.98 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 2.88 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs 22.17 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 17.10 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | December 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 0.00 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 1.38 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 0.00 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 0.00 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 1.10 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 0.00 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs 10.75 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -37.11% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 0.00% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | #N/A | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Error | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 35.37 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Error | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 70,194,280 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | NA | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | NA | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | #VALUE! | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Empty | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | NA | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | NA | Financial Report Quarter |
CfO | NA | Cash from Operations (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | #VALUE! | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | 0.50 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/FCF | Price over free cash flow | |
P/FCF Sector Avg | -195.41 | Sector Average P/FCF |
P/E | 5.74 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | -16.90 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | Price over book value ratio | |
P/B Sector Avg | 2.24 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 0.00 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | -29.38 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | Debt / Equity ratio (%) | |
Sector D/E Ratio | 112.84 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 05/12/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 17.10 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 12.67 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 11.05 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 11.31 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 11.22 | |
Score | -6 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -5 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
United Insurance - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
United Insurance 30OCT2013 12:44:00 EPS = 2.75
United Insurance 30OCT2013 12:44:00 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 192.827
United Insurance 30OCT2013 12:44:00 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 216.692
United Insurance 30OCT2013 12:44:00 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
JLICL - Jubilee Life Insurance Ltd. - Company Analysis - 06-12-2013
Company | JLICL | Symbol |
Company Name | Jubilee Life Insurance Ltd. | Company Name |
Sector | Life Insurance | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs 3.09 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 3.03 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs 23.00 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year-end EPS's |
EPS | Rs 12.44 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 5.97 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs 92.56 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 159.00 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | December 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 7.00 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 2.50 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 52.08 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 1.35 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 1.11 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 10.04 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs 5.12 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -96.78% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 4.40% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | 2.51% | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Rs 29.83 | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 149.88 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Rs 669.99 | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 62,712,000 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | Rs 0.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | Rs 26,231.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | Rs -418.28 | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Rs -418.28 | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | Rs 28,102.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | June 2013 | Financial Report Quarter |
CfO | Rs 5,854.00 | Cash from Operations (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | Rs 90.05 | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | 45.13 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/FCF | 1.77 | Price over free cash flow |
P/FCF Sector Avg | 1.94 | Sector Average P/FCF |
P/E | 12.78 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | 13.13 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | 5.33 | Price over book value ratio |
P/B Sector Avg | 2.85 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 56.27 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | 25.31 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | 1,401.98 | Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Sector D/E Ratio | 749.08 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 05/12/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 159.00 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 128.50 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 109.80 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 102.36 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 94.63 | |
Score | -6 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -1 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
Jubile Life Ins. - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
Jubile Life Ins. 30OCT2013 13:30:07 EPS = 9.37
Jubile Life Ins. 30OCT2013 13:30:07 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 587.478
Jubile Life Ins. 30OCT2013 13:30:07 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 868.185
Jubile Life Ins. 30OCT2013 13:30:07 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
MEBL- Meezan Bank Ltd. - Company Analysis - 06-12-2013
Company | MEBL | Symbol |
Company Name | Meezan Bank Ltd. | Company Name |
Sector | Commercial Banks | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs 2.55 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 4.02 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs 18.98 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year-end EPS's |
EPS | Rs 3.80 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 3.77 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs 28.27 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 39.00 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | December 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 1.50 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 2.35 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 11.16 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 0.40 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 1.49 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 2.98 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs -25.81 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -166.17% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 3.85% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | 3.20% | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Rs 17.08 | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 28.00 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Rs 308.38 | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 1,002,737,867 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | Rs 0.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | Rs 297,468.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | Rs -296.66 | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Rs -296.66 | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | Rs 314,598.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | September 2013 | Financial Report Quarter |
CfO | Rs 43,217.00 | Cash from Operations (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | Rs 41.45 | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | 15.84 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/FCF | 0.94 | Price over free cash flow |
P/FCF Sector Avg | -4.02 | Sector Average P/FCF |
P/E | 10.26 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | 6.85 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | 2.28 | Price over book value ratio |
P/B Sector Avg | 1.18 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 39.47 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | 28.29 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | 1,736.53 | Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Sector D/E Ratio | 1,434.95 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 05/12/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 39.00 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 37.94 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 35.61 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 32.57 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 31.75 | |
Score | -14 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -1 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
Meezan Bank Ltd. - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
Meezan Bank Ltd. 30OCT2013 13:35:12 EPS = 2.87
Meezan Bank Ltd. 30OCT2013 13:35:12 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,877.263
Meezan Bank Ltd. 30OCT2013 13:35:12 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 4,320.106
Meezan Bank Ltd. 30OCT2013 13:35:12 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
Service Ind.Ltd - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
Service Ind.Ltd 30OCT2013 17:20:24 EPS = 42.98
Service Ind.Ltd 30OCT2013 17:20:24 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 516.978
Service Ind.Ltd 30OCT2013 17:20:24 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 596.359
Service Ind.Ltd 30OCT2013 17:20:24 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 30/09/2013
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