"Make realistic assumptions and the inputs will be acceptable. Do not use numbers to match what you want the output to be.
Your role as an investor is to be a realist. Not an optimist or a pessimist or to have your views confirmed."
Saturday, August 17, 2013
Your role as an investor
You can purchase the best stock in the world, but ….
"You can purchase the best stock in the world, but if you buy it at a lofty premium, it is a bad investment.
Vice versa, the stock could be the worst company in the world, but if you buy it at such a cheap price that it cannot go down any further, it may just turn out to be your best investment."
Individuals who know the price of everything
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.
- Philip Fisher
PAKT - Pakistan Tobacco Co. Ltd. - Company Analysis - 17-08-2013
Company | PAKT | Symbol |
Company Name | Pakistan Tobacco Co. Ltd. | Company Name |
Sector | Tobacco | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs 7.21 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 29.78 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs 80.08 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's |
EPS | Rs 13.14 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 0.68 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs 146.00 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 261.46 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | August 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 9.05 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 4.02 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 100.56 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 4.85 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 4.55 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 53.89 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs 53.40 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -79.58% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 3.46% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | 1.84% | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Rs 16.08 | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 58.60 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Rs 58.88 | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 255,493,600 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | Rs 8,143.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | Rs 9,776.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | Rs -6.39 | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Rs -21.92 | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | Rs 13,884.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | December 2012 | Data Quarter |
CfO | Rs 1,775.00 | CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | Rs 5.30 | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | -13.52 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/E | 19.90 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | -6.37 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | 16.26 | Price over book value ratio |
P/B Sector Avg | 10.16 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 68.87 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | 36.60 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | 237.97 | Debt / Equite ratio (%) |
Sector D/E Ratio | 198.53 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 15/08/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 261.46 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 176.85 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 132.33 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 110.92 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 97.04 | |
Score | -11 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -3 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
Pak Tobacco - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30/06/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 BOOK CLOSURE TO 19/09/2013
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 BOOK CLOSURE FROM 13/09/2013
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 DIVIDEND = 20%(ii)
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 EPS = 8.18
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,090.865
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 3,111.444
Pak Tobacco 15AUG2013 16:05:36 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30/06/2013
LINDE - Linde Pakistan Limited - Company Analysis - 17-08-2013
Company | LINDE | Symbol |
Company Name | Linde Pakistan Limited | Company Name |
Sector | Chemicals | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs 13.38 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 5.82 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs 148.68 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's |
EPS | Rs 8.87 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 7.32 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs 98.56 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 187.00 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | August 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 6.50 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 3.26 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 72.22 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 5.65 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 2.35 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 62.78 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs 44.34 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -76.29% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 3.48% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | 3.68% | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Rs 64.10 | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 47.11 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Rs 11.54 | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 25,038,700 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | Rs 1,179.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | Rs 2,308.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | Rs -45.09 | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Rs -58.07 | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | Rs 3,913.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | March 2013 | Data Quarter |
CfO | Rs 206.00 | CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | Rs 1.04 | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | -2.08 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/E | 21.08 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | 9.02 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | 2.92 | Price over book value ratio |
P/B Sector Avg | 1.66 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 73.28 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | 45.04 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | 143.80 | Debt / Equite ratio (%) |
Sector D/E Ratio | 154.64 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 15/08/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 187.00 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 180.05 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 167.97 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 162.08 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 155.55 | |
Score | -7 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -1 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
Linde Pakistan - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30/06/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 BOOK CLOSURE TO 16/09/2013
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 BOOK CLOSURE FROM 10/09/2013
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 EPS = 3.69
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 92.269
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 145.564
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 DIVIDEND = 15% (I)
Linde Pakistan 16AUG2013 12:10:38 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 30/06/2013
MTL - Millat Tractors Ltd. - Company Analysis - 17-08-2013
Company | MTL | Symbol |
Company Name | Millat Tractors Ltd. | Company Name |
Sector | Engineering | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs 54.25 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 13.36 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs 602.75 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's |
EPS | Rs 53.11 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 11.46 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs 590.11 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 559.69 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | August 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 55.00 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 10.21 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 611.11 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 34.20 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 6.01 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 380.00 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs 264.08 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -52.82% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 9.83% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | 4.26% | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Rs 131.00 | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 162.29 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Rs -321.47 | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 40,265,947 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | Rs 7,718.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | Rs 4,021.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | Rs 91.81 | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Rs 27.36 | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | Rs 9,296.00 | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | December 2012 | Data Quarter |
CfO | Rs -1,062.00 | CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | Rs -28.93 | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | -12.74 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/E | 10.54 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | 10.99 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | 4.27 | Price over book value ratio |
P/B Sector Avg | 1.08 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 103.56 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | 33.69 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | 76.23 | Debt / Equite ratio (%) |
Sector D/E Ratio | 82.57 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 15/08/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 559.69 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 529.19 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 523.41 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 542.28 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 534.07 | |
Score | -1 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -1 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
Millat Tractors - FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2013
Company Date Time Announcement
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 BOOK CLOSURE TO 30/09/2013
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 BOOK CLOSURE FROM 20/09/2013
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING WILL BE HELD ON 30/09/2013
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 EPS = 53.11
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 PROFIT/LOSS AFTER TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 2,138.646
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 PROFIT/LOSS BEFORE TAXATION RS. IN MILLION 3,172.972
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 BONUS ISSUE = 10%
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 DIVIDEND = 250%
Millat Tractors 16AUG2013 12:15:52 FINANCIAL RESULT FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30/06/2013
GSPM - Gulshan Spinning Mills Ltd. - Company Analysis - 17-08-2013
Company | GSPM | Symbol |
Company Name | Gulshan Spinning Mills Ltd. | Company Name |
Sector | Personal Goods (Textile) | Sector |
Avg EPS | Rs -13.54 | Average of past year end EPS's |
Sector Average | Rs 4.85 | Sector average of the above |
Avg EPS FV | Rs -150.46 | Fair Value (DCF) based on average of past year end EPS's |
EPS | Rs -126.49 | Last four quarters EPS |
Sector Average | Rs 10.93 | Sector average of the above |
EPS FV | Rs -1,405.44 | Fair Value (DCF) based on last four quarters EPS |
Current Price | Rs 4.71 | Last closing stock price |
Updated | August 2013 | Data Month/Year |
Div | Rs 0.00 | Total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Sector Average | Rs 2.24 | Sector average of the above |
Div FV | Rs 0.00 | Fair value (DD) based on total dividend paid during last four quarters |
Avg Div | Rs 0.33 | Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones) |
Sector Average | Rs 0.97 | Sector average of the above |
Avg Div FV | Rs 3.61 | Fair value (DD) based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including current) |
Avg | Rs -388.07 | Fair value (averaged of other fair values) |
Upside | -8339.35% | Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average. |
Div Yield | 0.00% | Dividend yield |
Sector Average | #N/A | Sector average of the above |
Book Value | Error | Book Value |
Sector Average | Rs 145.64 | Sector average of the above |
FV FCF/S | Error | Fair Value based on free cash flow per share |
Outstanding Shares | 22,225,038 | Number of Outstanding Shares |
Current Assets | NA | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Total Liabilities | NA | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
NCAV/S | #VALUE! | Net Current Asset Value / Share |
NNWC/S | Empty | Net Net Working Capital / Share |
Total Assets | NA | Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees |
Quarter | NA | Data Quarter |
CfO | NA | CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs) |
FCF/S | #VALUE! | Free Cash Flow per Share |
FCF/S Sector Avg | -8.83 | Sector Average FCF/S |
P/E | -0.04 | Price over earnings ratio |
P/E Sector Avg | -0.43 | Sector Average P/E |
P/B | Price over book value ratio | |
P/B Sector Avg | 1.12 | Sector Average P/B |
PR | 0.00 | Payout Ratio (in %) |
PR Sector Avg | 8.48 | Sector average Payout Ratio (in %) |
D/E Ratio | Debt / Equite ratio (%) | |
Sector D/E Ratio | 271.26 | Sector Debt / Equity ratio (%) |
Price Performance | ||
Last Trade Date | 15/08/2013 | |
Last Trade Price | Rs 4.71 | |
3 Months Avg | Rs 4.52 | |
6 Months Avg | Rs 5.18 | |
9 Months Avg | Rs 5.54 | |
12 Months Avg | Rs 5.74 | |
Score | -9 | cumulative +ve's, -ve's from above all |
Buy Scale | -3 | Range -5 to +5 (based on 5 different complex analysis) |
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