Pakistan Stocks: 2012-12-09

Saturday, December 15, 2012

A few quotes for investors!

"Risk is what's left over when you think you've thought of everything." -- Carl Richards

"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." -- Robert Arnott

"When a possibility is unfamiliar to us, we do not even think about it." -- Nate Silver

"People focus on role models; it is more effective to find antimodels -- people you don't want to resemble when you grow up." -- Nassim Taleb

"Pundits forecast not because they know, but because they are asked." -- John Kenneth Galbraith

"Being slow and steady means that you're willing to exchange the opportunity of making a killing for the assurance of never getting killed." -- Carl Richards

"If you look carefully, almost all Old Money secrets can be traced to a single source: a longer-term outlook." -- Bill Bonner

"No one can foresee the consequences of trivia and accident, and for that reason alone, the future will forever be filled with surprises." -- Dan Gardner

"The stock market is a giant distraction to the business of investing." -- John Bogle

"In the corporate world, if you have analysts, due diligence, and no horse sense, you've just described hell." -- Charlie Munger

Value Investing!

Buying a business is an investment; trading stocks is not. The difference is clear. Value investors believe that as stockholders, they are owners of the corporation with rights and privileges. Speculators of stocks seem to believe that shares of companies are pieces of paper to be traded back and forth among market participants, regardless of the underlying assets associated with the securities.

Investors in businesses base their investment decisions on the economics of the business, the price they are paying relative to the value they are getting. Market speculators make decisions based on their predictions of the behavior of others—buy if the stock “behaves” well and sell if it does not. Surprisingly, some professional stock market participants who speculate on the price movement trade in an out of stocks quite well. It works for them. For most of us, however, such market psychology games are beyond our competence level.

For the value investor, buying a publicly traded business is no different than buying a private company or a home. The thought processes are very similar. Individuals interested in purchasing a home are not interested in “trading” the property. Most individuals intend to buy and hold, or sell five to seven years later. These potential owners take their time, spend countless hours researching potential prospects in the newspaper and on the Internet, and follow up on recommendations from real estate agents. Thorough homework is done. Long-term value investors believe that this level of care should also hold true for events in the public markets.

Friday, December 14, 2012

We try to find companies....

“We try to find companies that have the most consistent earnings streams, companies that are very predictable, companies that are in industries that lend themselves to predictability, that we believe can generate good, consistent profits in the future.”
John W. Rogers, Jr.

TATM - Tata textile Mills Limited - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	TATM	Symbol
Company Name	Tata textile Mills Limited	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 5.46	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 54.57	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 6.96	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 69.60	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 36.73	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 1.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 10.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 1.06	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 10.56	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 36.18	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-1.49%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	2.72%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Error	Book Value
Sector	Personal Goods (Textile)	Sector
FV CF/S	Error	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	17,324,750	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	#VALUE!	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	NA	Data Quarter
CfO	NA	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	#VALUE!	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	TATM
Current Price	Rs 38.58
Previous Day Price	Rs 36.75
Daily Return	4.98%
Price Week Ago	Rs 32.93
Weekly Return	17.16%
Price Month Ago	Rs 22.25
Monthly Return	73.39%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 20.22
Quarterly Return	90.80%
Price Year Ago	Rs 21.00
Yearly Return	83.71%

CSM - Crescent Standard Modaraba - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	CSM	Symbol
Company Name	Crescent Standard Modaraba	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 0.10	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 0.96	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 0.30	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 3.00	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 2.02	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 0.15	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 1.50	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 0.04	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 0.43	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 1.47	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-27.10%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	7.43%	Dividend yield
Book Value	NF	Book Value
Sector	Equity Investment Instruments	Sector
FV CF/S	Error	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	20,000,000	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	#VALUE!	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	NA	Data Quarter
CfO	NA	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	#VALUE!	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	CSM
Current Price	Rs 2.04
Previous Day Price	Rs 1.90
Daily Return	7.37%
Price Week Ago	Rs 1.59
Weekly Return	28.30%
Price Month Ago	Rs 1.11
Monthly Return	83.78%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 1.07
Quarterly Return	90.65%
Price Year Ago	Rs 0.53
Yearly Return	284.91%

BRR - B.R.R. Guardian Modaraba - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	BRR	Symbol
Company Name	B.R.R. Guardian Modaraba	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs -0.33	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs -3.26	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 0.27	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 2.70	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 3.30	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 0.18	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 1.80	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 0.60	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 5.98	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 2.23	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-32.30%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	5.45%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 10.08	Book Value
Sector	Equity Investment Instruments	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs 11.66	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	78,046,255	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 1,198.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 2,238.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs -13.33	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 3,025.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	September 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs 91.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs 1.17	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	BRR
Current Price	Rs 3.57
Previous Day Price	Rs 3.50
Daily Return	2.00%
Price Week Ago	Rs 3.43
Weekly Return	4.08%
Price Month Ago	Rs 2.70
Monthly Return	32.22%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 2.50
Quarterly Return	42.80%
Price Year Ago	Rs 2.41
Yearly Return	48.13%

ZIL - ZIL Limited - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	ZIL	Symbol
Company Name	ZIL Limited	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 8.03	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 80.27	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 6.99	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 69.90	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 104.25	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 3.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 30.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 3.06	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 30.56	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 32.79	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-68.55%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	2.88%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 77.20	Book Value
Sector	Personal Goods (Textile)	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs -63.86	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	5,324,000	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 624.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 595.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs 5.45	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 1,006.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	September 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs -34.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs -6.39	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	ZIL
Current Price	#N/A
Previous Day Price	#N/A
Daily Return	#N/A
Price Week Ago	#N/A
Weekly Return	#N/A
Price Month Ago	#N/A
Monthly Return	#N/A
Price Quarter Ago	#N/A
Quarterly Return	#N/A
Price Year Ago	#N/A
Yearly Return	#N/A

GRYL - Grays Leasing Ltd. - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	GRYL	Symbol
Company Name	Grays Leasing Ltd.	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs -1.28	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs -12.84	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs -0.05	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs -0.50	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 5.35	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 0.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 0.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 0.28	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 2.78	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs -2.64	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-149.37%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	0.00%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Error	Book Value
Sector	Financial Services	Sector
FV CF/S	Error	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	21,500,000	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	#VALUE!	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	NA	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	NA	Data Quarter
CfO	NA	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	#VALUE!	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	GRYL
Current Price	#N/A
Previous Day Price	#N/A
Daily Return	#N/A
Price Week Ago	#N/A
Weekly Return	#N/A
Price Month Ago	#N/A
Monthly Return	#N/A
Price Quarter Ago	#N/A
Quarterly Return	#N/A
Price Year Ago	#N/A
Yearly Return	#N/A

MDTL - Media Times Ltd - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	MDTL	Symbol
Company Name	Media Times Ltd	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs -1.58	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs -15.80	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs -4.40	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs -44.00	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 4.68	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 0.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 0.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 0.00	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 0.00	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs -8.25	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-276.21%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	0.00%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 4.99	Book Value
Sector	Media	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs -0.95	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	178,851,010	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 160.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 512.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs -1.97	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 1,405.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	September 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs -17.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs -0.10	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	MDTL
Current Price	Rs 4.88
Previous Day Price	Rs 4.90
Daily Return	-0.41%
Price Week Ago	Rs 4.99
Weekly Return	-2.20%
Price Month Ago	Rs 5.80
Monthly Return	-15.86%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 5.61
Quarterly Return	-13.01%
Price Year Ago	Rs 7.96
Yearly Return	-38.69%

ICI - I.C.I Pakistan Ltd. - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	ICI	Symbol
Company Name	I.C.I Pakistan Ltd.	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 13.96	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 139.56	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 10.40	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 104.00	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 176.39	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 9.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 90.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 7.22	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 72.22	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 17.83	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-89.89%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	5.10%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 107.49	Book Value
Sector	Chemicals	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs -383.83	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	92,359,050	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 7,942.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 8,372.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs -4.66	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 18,300.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	September 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs -3,545.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs -38.38	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	ICI
Current Price	Rs 175.00
Previous Day Price	Rs 175.00
Daily Return	0.00%
Price Week Ago	Rs 176.57
Weekly Return	-0.89%
Price Month Ago	Rs 171.16
Monthly Return	2.24%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 168.11
Quarterly Return	4.10%
Price Year Ago	Rs 121.08
Yearly Return	44.53%

SAPL - Sanofi-Aventis Pakistan Limited - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	SAPL	Symbol
Company Name	Sanofi-Aventis Pakistan Limited	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 15.44	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 154.42	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 35.30	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 353.00	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 375.00	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 10.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 100.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 5.44	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 54.44	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 127.12	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-66.10%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	2.67%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 181.55	Book Value
Sector	Pharma and Bio Tech	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs 21.77	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	9,644,800	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 3,920.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 3,682.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs 24.68	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 5,433.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	September 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs 21.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs 2.18	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	SAPL
Current Price	Rs 352.00
Previous Day Price	Rs 357.00
Daily Return	-1.40%
Price Week Ago	Rs 366.03
Weekly Return	-3.83%
Price Month Ago	Rs 340.00
Monthly Return	3.53%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 221.67
Quarterly Return	58.79%
Price Year Ago	Rs 141.10
Yearly Return	149.47%

AHCL - Arif Habib Corporation Limited - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	AHCL	Symbol
Company Name	Arif Habib Corporation Limited	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 30.65	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 306.49	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 6.84	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 68.40	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 25.64	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 3.00	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 30.00	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 3.00	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 30.00	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 63.02	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	145.78%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	11.70%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 32.03	Book Value
Sector	Chemicals	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs -18.80	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	453,750,000	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 6,279.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 9,447.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs -6.98	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 23,979.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	June 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs -853.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs -1.88	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	AHCL
Current Price	Rs 26.29
Previous Day Price	Rs 26.03
Daily Return	1.00%
Price Week Ago	Rs 25.62
Weekly Return	2.62%
Price Month Ago	Rs 25.04
Monthly Return	4.99%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 32.99
Quarterly Return	-20.31%
Price Year Ago	Rs 27.70
Yearly Return	-5.09%

THALL - Thal Limited. - Analysis - 14/12/2012

Company	THALL	Symbol
Company Name	Thal Limited.	Company Name
Avg EPS	Rs 24.55	Average of past year end EPS's
Avg EPS FV	Rs 245.51	Fair Value based on average of past year end EPS's
EPS	Rs 21.92	Last four quarters EPS
EPS FV	Rs 219.20	Fair Value based on last four quarters EPS
Current Price	Rs 110.00	Last closing stock price
Updated	December 2012	Data Month/Year
Div	Rs 5.75	Total dividend paid during last four quarters
Div FV	Rs 57.50	Fair value based on total dividend paid during last four quarters
Avg Div	Rs 3.81	Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg Div FV	Rs 38.06	Fair value based on Average of yearly dividends paid (including currently paid ones)
Avg	Rs 108.28	Fair value (averaged of other fair value)
Upside	-1.56%	Upside potential (in percentage) based on the above Average.
Div Yield	5.23%	Dividend yield
Book Value	Rs 124.32	Book Value
Sector	General Industrials	Sector
FV CF/S	Rs 86.02	Fair Value based on cash flow per share
Outstanding Shares	81,029,917	Number of Outstanding Shares
Current Assets	Rs 6,585.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Total Liabilities	Rs 7,608.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
NCAV/S	Rs -12.62	Net Current Asset Value / Share
Total Assets	Rs 17,682.00	Currency in Millions of Pakistan Rupees
Quarter	September 2012	Data Quarter
CfO	Rs 697.00	CASH FROM OPERATIONS (Millions of Rs)
CF/S	Rs 8.60	Cash Flow per Share
Symbol	THALL
Current Price	Rs 115.00
Previous Day Price	Rs 116.50
Daily Return	-1.29%
Price Week Ago	Rs 110.11
Weekly Return	4.44%
Price Month Ago	Rs 103.45
Monthly Return	11.16%
Price Quarter Ago	Rs 127.19
Quarterly Return	-9.58%
Price Year Ago	Rs 79.92
Yearly Return	43.89%

Pages

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Friday, December 14, 2012