Saturday, January 22, 2011

Fatima share upside potential

Company FATIMA
Company Name Fatima Fert.Co.
EPS -0.08
Fair Price -0.57
Current Price 12.28
Upside Potential -104.65
Quarter 26-Oct-2010
Div 0
Fair Value 0.00
Upside Pot -100.00
Avg 3.19
Upside -74.00
Div Yield 0.00%
Book Value 10.15
OCF/S -1.42
P/E -153.50
P/BV 1.21
P/CF -8.65
Sector Chemicals

Upside potential, none. Its an overvalued share. Negative EPS (last four quarters cumulative), no dividend paid since last four quarters. Operating cash flow also in red, trading above its book value (P/BV = 1.21). Not a value investors dream company.




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LOTPTA Share Price 24-11-2010 21-01-2011

DATE SYMBOL OPEN RATE HIGH RATE LOW RATE CLOSING RATE TURNOVER
24/11/2010 LOTPTA 11.84 12.02 11.7 11.84 12,703,698
25/11/2010 LOTPTA 11.84 12.18 11.87 11.92 10,554,387
26/11/2010 LOTPTA 11.92 12.03 11.86 11.89 3,463,619
29/11/2010 LOTPTA 11.89 11.99 11.78 11.81 2,301,885
30/11/2010 LOTPTA 11.81 12.46 11.8 12.36 29,608,187
01/12/2010 LOTPTA 12.36 12.48 12.1 12.17 10,291,667
02/12/2010 LOTPTA 12.17 12.67 12.16 12.59 25,820,692
03/12/2010 LOTPTA 12.59 12.98 12.52 12.83 32,852,889
06/12/2010 LOTPTA 12.83 13.05 12.7 12.78 12,990,055
07/12/2010 LOTPTA 12.78 12.87 12.56 12.63 6,478,814
08/12/2010 LOTPTA 12.63 13.25 12.7 13.16 34,285,623
09/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.16 13.25 12.95 13.03 8,336,094
10/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.03 13.54 13.05 13.33 17,877,393
13/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.33 13.7 13.4 13.61 10,811,387
14/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.61 13.83 13.32 13.4 12,945,326
15/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.4 13.4 13.03 13.17 11,192,613
20/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.17 13.48 13.15 13.23 7,460,345
21/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.23 13.52 13.25 13.38 8,758,037
22/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.38 13.5 13.18 13.23 6,722,698
23/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.23 13.35 13.11 13.15 2,973,333
24/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.15 13.62 13.16 13.5 14,276,570
27/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.5 13.67 13.5 13.59 5,481,468
28/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.59 13.64 13.23 13.26 4,112,210
29/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.26 13.4 13.12 13.19 3,896,724
30/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.19 13.82 13.27 13.75 17,276,475
31/12/2010 LOTPTA 13.75 14.11 13.6 13.7 22,495,086
03/01/2011 LOTPTA 13.7 13.58 13.24 13.43 11,545,218
04/01/2011 LOTPTA 13.43 14.43 13.4 14.39 45,284,732
05/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.39 14.83 14.41 14.54 23,067,643
06/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.54 14.78 14.54 14.71 12,450,207
07/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.71 14.99 14.68 14.73 13,739,575
10/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.73 15.04 14.61 14.66 14,437,713
11/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.66 14.87 14.36 14.52 11,696,910
12/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.52 14.79 14.49 14.54 13,554,166
13/01/2011 LOTPTA 14.54 15.54 14.44 15.5 59,415,110
14/01/2011 LOTPTA 15.5 15.77 15.22 15.56 29,256,209
17/01/2011 LOTPTA 15.56 15.84 15.41 15.49 17,510,020
18/01/2011 LOTPTA 15.49 15.95 15.51 15.64 27,817,667
19/01/2011 LOTPTA 15.64 16.49 15.7 16.19 45,771,524
20/01/2011 LOTPTA 16.19 16.33 15.19 15.25 49,742,104
21/01/2011 LOTPTA 15.25 15.6 14.46 14.71 22,431,883

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BOK Bank of Khyber - Share price 24-11-2010 21-01-2011

DATE SYMBOL OPEN RATE HIGH RATE LOW RATE CLOSING RATE TURNOVER
24/11/2010 BOK 4.3 4.5 4.3 4.3 48,085
25/11/2010 BOK 4.3 4.4 4.21 4.26 27,519
26/11/2010 BOK 4.26 4.49 3.65 4.17 36,770
29/11/2010 BOK 4.17 4.33 3.83 4.29 1,249
30/11/2010 BOK 4.29 4.32 4 4.29 35,444
01/12/2010 BOK 4.29 4.29 4.07 4.12 32,172
02/12/2010 BOK 4.12 4.34 4.12 4.15 6,088
03/12/2010 BOK 4.15 4.33 3.85 4.27 29,005
06/12/2010 BOK 4.27 4.4 3.94 4.18 16,897
07/12/2010 BOK 4.18 4.29 4.1 4.1 18,819
08/12/2010 BOK 4.1 4.28 4.05 4.06 28,433
09/12/2010 BOK 4.06 4.7 4.08 4.6 241,818
10/12/2010 BOK 4.6 4.51 4 4.5 99,658
13/12/2010 BOK 4.5 4.52 4.23 4.31 148,732
14/12/2010 BOK 4.31 4.68 4.2 4.4 6,694
15/12/2010 BOK 4.4 4.48 4.17 4.19 4,581
20/12/2010 BOK 4.19 4.54 4.2 4.25 19,565
21/12/2010 BOK 4.25 4.48 4.11 4.17 6,315
22/12/2010 BOK 4.17 4.37 4.12 4.12 16,533
23/12/2010 BOK 4.12 4.15 4.01 4.12 7,872
24/12/2010 BOK 4.12 4.13 4.01 4.08 4,693
27/12/2010 BOK 4.08 4.49 4.2 4.4 29,669
28/12/2010 BOK 4.4 4.35 4.05 4.1 248,162
29/12/2010 BOK 4.1 4.4 4.18 4.19 14,616
30/12/2010 BOK 4.19 4.5 4 4.31 96,758
31/12/2010 BOK 4.31 4.5 4.21 4.3 31,655
03/01/2011 BOK 4.3 4.25 4 4.1 35,748
04/01/2011 BOK 4.1 4.25 4.14 4.17 11,097
05/01/2011 BOK 4.17 4.19 4 4.11 15,303
06/01/2011 BOK 4.11 4.4 4.1 4.12 9,161
07/01/2011 BOK 4.12 4.35 4.08 4.21 4,608
10/01/2011 BOK 4.21 4.4 4.23 4.23 7,075
11/01/2011 BOK 4.23 4.28 4.1 4.14 19,664
12/01/2011 BOK 4.14 4.19 4.1 4.14 7,760
13/01/2011 BOK 4.14 4.31 4.1 4.11 5,484
14/01/2011 BOK 4.11 4.2 4.1 4.2 14,180
17/01/2011 BOK 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.14 26,752
18/01/2011 BOK 4.14 4.19 4.11 4.11 33,330
19/01/2011 BOK 4.11 4.19 4.1 4.1 47,364
20/01/2011 BOK 4.1 4.39 4.05 4.05 20,049
21/01/2011 BOK 4.05 4.15 3.9 3.96 28,516

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KSE - Spot Dates

Symbol Start Date End Date
SMBL 1/25/2011 1/28/2011  

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FFBL - Investment Case

Company FFBL
Company Name Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim
EPS 5.26
Fair Price 37.57
Current Price 42.27
Upside Potential -11.12
Quarter 21-Oct-2010
Div 5.3
Fair Value 37.86
Upside Pot -10.44
Avg 28.58
Upside -32.40
Div Yield 12.54%
Book Value 10.3
OCF/S -3.20
P/E 8.04
P/BV 4.10
P/CF -13.21
Sector Chemicals

FFBLs last four quarters EPS is 5.26. If we calculate a fair value based on that data, the the fair value comes out as Rs 37.57, which is below its last closing price of Rs 42.27. Its P/E also comes at 8.04 which is quiet high. So no buying indication here. Lets now move to its dividend. During the past four quarters FFBL has paid Rs 5.30 per share as dividend. If we calculate a fair value based on ite dividend payout, it comes out to be Rs 37.86, still not good for investment at this point in time (although its dividend yield of 12.54% is very good). Next lets check its book value, which is Rs 10.3 which gives a P/BV of 4.10 showing that at curent price level it is trading at 4 times its book value. All the above gives an average price of Rs 28.58, still not good enough candidate for investment. Moving to operating cash flow per share, the data I was able to obtain shows it at Rs -3.20, still not good.

So from value investor (add contrarian's to the list too) point of view, I would not buy FFBL at current price level. What the company will announce in future, I don't know, all I know is what the company has announced so far. Where the price will go tomorrow, next week, next month; I don't know (I don't have faith in technical analysis either, chats just plainly don't work). I don't speculate, nor am I a growth stocks investor. I personally have not a single share of FFBL in my portfolio (I personally have nothing against this company and if its price comes down significantly, I wouldn't mind investing in it), but at current levels, it definitely is overvalued and overpriced. So if you are in profit better sell it after its announcement (which is expected on Tuesday) and play safe. Now one thing with this advice, it is possible that the share price may go up after you have sold your holding and then you might regret having let it go cheap. So it is up to you, think well before taking a decision. What I can tell you with any conviction is that (from value investors point of view) FFBL is definitely overpriced currently.

Hope that was of some help!

Best of luck and happy investing!





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Dividend yield of nishat chunian pakistan 2010

Dividend yield of nishat chunian pakistan during the past four quarters
is 6.35%. NCL Nishat (Chunian) Limited. has paid Rs. 1.5 as dividends to
its stock holders during the last four quarters.
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Dividend yield of fauji fertilizer bin qasim pakistan 2010

Dividend yield of fauji fertilizer bin qasim pakistan for the last four
quarters is 12.54%.FFBL Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim has paid Rs 5.30 to
its stock holders during the last four quarters.
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Dividend yield of berger pakistan 2010

Dividend yield of berger pakistan during he last four quarters is nil.
BERG Berger Paints Pakistan Ltd. has not paid a dime to its stock
holders during the past four quarters.
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Dividend yield of azgard nine pakistan 2010

Dividend yield of azgard nine pakistan during the last four quarters is
nil. This company has not paid anything (as dividends) to its stock holders.
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Dividend yield of nishat chun power pakistan 2010

Dividend yield of nishat chun power Pakistan during the last four
quarters is zilch. NCPL Nishat Chun Power has not paid any dividends to
its stock holders.
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Dividend yield of byco petroleum 2010

Dividend yield of byco petroleum for the last four quarters is nil. BYCO
Petroleum has not paid a dime to its stock holders during the past four
quarters.
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Sunday, January 16, 2011

RULE 25 - David Dreman

Don't be seduced by recent rates of return for individual stocks or the
market when they deviate sharply from past norms (the "case rate").
Long-term returns of stocks (the "base rate") are far more likely to be
established again. If returns are particularly high or low, they are
likely to be abnormal.
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