Graham on stock performance forecasting

The heart of Graham's argument is that the intelligent investor must
never forecast the future exclusively by extrapolating the past.

Graham on stock performance forecasting

ANL selling its entire stake of Agritech

According to a notice sent by Azgard Nine to Karachi Stock Exchange, the
Company has decided to disinvest its 100% shareholding of around 313 mn
shares (78.79% of total paid up capital) ordinary shares in Agritech
(formerly Pak American Fertilizer) to support the
reprofiling/restructuring of the debt. The names coming up as potential
buying parties are Arif Habib Group, Fauji Fertilizer and Nishat Group.
ANL is a composite textile unit involved in production of denim products
and around 85% of the revenue is generated through exports. Recently as
the price of yarn shot up drastically, due to which the company faced a
hit on gross margins and accompanied by heavy financial charges resulted
in a loss of PkR 0.15 per share in the bottom line for the 1QFY10. The
main purpose of the company to offload Agritech is to generate fund to
restructure its debt. ANL holds debt of PkR 15.25 bn and debt to equity
ratio of 45:55. In March 2010, ANL offered some of its stake in
Agritech to general public at a price of PkR 30.0. However, this time
the offer price is not yet known. In case ANL manages to sell the
remaining entire stake at a price of PkR 30.0 per share; it would be
able to raise funds amounting to PkR 9.4 bn from which after retiring
the debt would result in improvement of stand alone after tax earnings
by PkR 1.88 per share.

ANL selling its entire stake of Agritech

SCRA, May details

Country	27-5-2010					During the Month (May,10 )								During the Year July,09 to date
	Inflow		Outflow		Net  flow	Cumulative inflow			Cumulative outflow				Cumulative Net  flow	Cumulative inflow				Cumulative out flow				Cumulative Net  flow
	Equity	TOTAL	Equity	TOTAL		Equity	T.Bills	TOTAL	Equity	T.Bills	Others	TOTAL		Equity	T.Bills	PIBs	TOTAL	Equity	T.Bills	Others	TOTAL
Australia		-		-	-	548	-	548	-	-	-	-	548	5,468	-	-	5,468	7,970	-	-	7,970	(2,502)
B.V Island		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	0	(0)
Bahamas		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	43	-	-	43	513	-	-	513	(470)
Bahrain		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Bermuda		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,124	-	-	1,124	(1,124)
Camyan Island		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0	-	-	0	(0)
Chile		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5,632	-	-	5,632	(5,632)
Denmark		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	76	-	-	76	8	-	-	8	68
France	159	159		-	159	159	-	159	-	-	-	-	159	159	-	-	159	1,444	-	-	1,444	(1,285)
Germany	126	126		-	126	504	-	504	56	-	-	56	448	3,119	-	-	3,119	1,569	-	-	1,569	1,550
Guernsey		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	140	-	-	140	-	-	-	-	140
Hong Kong	130	130	73	73	57	2,131	-	2,131	2,821	-	-	2,821	(690)	56,542	-	-	56,542	52,016	-	-	52,016	4,526
Japan		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	570	-	-	570	204	-	-	204	366
Liberia		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	20	-	-	20	189	-	-	189	(169)
Korea		-	3	3	(3)	68	-	68	3	-	-	3	65	650	-	-	650	19	-	-	19	630
Kuwait		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1,334	-	-	1,334	600	-	-	600	734
Luxembourg	420	420		-	420	3,227	-	3,227	3,001	-	-	3,001	226	69,464	-	-	69,464	21,055	-	-	21,055	48,409
Malaysia		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2,331	-	-	2,331	(2,331)
Mauritius		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nethetland		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34	-	-	34	-	-	-	-	34
Oman		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	84	-	-	84	-	-	-	-	84
Philippine		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Qatar		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Srilanka		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Singapore		-		-	-	8	-	8	-	-	-	-	8	1,948	-	-	1,948	1,933	-	-	1,933	15
Sweden		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Saudi Arabia		-		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Switzerland		-	74	74	(74)	5,145	-	5,145	8,169	-	-	8,169	(3,024)	35,780	-	-	35,780	30,250	-	211	30,461	5,319
UAE		-		-	-	450	-	450	106	-	-	106	344	17,325	82,307	3,149	102,781	45,128	82,571	46	127,745	(24,964)
UK	343	343	1,931	1,931	(1,588)	10,987	27,177	38,164	24,187	21,787	225	46,199	(8,035)	217,676	53,991	-	271,667	160,346	21,787	456	182,589	89,078
USA	1,077	1,077	4,300	4,300	(3,223)	59,524	-	59,524	39,227	-	-	39,227	20,297	730,293	-	2,429	732,722	314,073	-	3	314,076	418,646
Total	2,255	2,255	6,381	6,381	(4,126)	82,751	27,177	109,928	77,570	21,787	225	99,582	10,346	1,140,726	136,298	5,578	1,282,602	646,404	104,358	717	751,479	531,123

SCRA, May details